The Gulf Shift: From Caution to Confrontation with Iran

On Wednesday Saudi Arabia hosted the foreign ministers of Islamic states in Riyadh in response to the escalation and the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran. Which included, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, ​Kuwait, Pakistan, Qatar, Syria, Turkey and the United ​Arab Emirates.

The Saudi foreign minister, unusually, was very explicit in mentioning the reach of Iranian attacks, as well as its proxies across the Middle East, including Iranian support to the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the PMF in Iraq. He also stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s only contribution to the Islamic world has been the creation of these groups and the destabilization of the region.

On the attacks against Saudi natural resource infrastructure, the minister said there is no justification for Iran targeting these facilities and warned that there will be consequences, adding that patience will eventually run out.

The Saudis have shifted their position several times in recent weeks. During the pre-war period, when Qatar and Turkey were lobbying in Washington against a U.S. strike on Iran, Saudi Arabia aligned with them for a time, concerned about escalation and the potential impact on its own territory. However, in the final days before the attack, it appeared that the Saudis began pushing in Washington for strikes on Iran. This shift may have come once it became clear that the U.S. would proceed regardless, forcing Saudi Arabia to take a side.

Since the start of the war, Saudi Arabia has been attacked numerous times but has avoided dramatizing these events, maintaining a “everything is under control” posture. This comes at a cost, as Iran has continued targeting infrastructure in what it sees as its arch-enemy. At the same time, Iran has struck across the Gulf, including it long time allies such as Qatar and the Sultanate of Oman.

The shifts are now changing again. Saudi Arabia and the UAE initially did not push for the total destruction of Iran; their aim was to weaken the regime and see whether internal change might occur. Over the past 19 days, however, with U.S. and Israeli support, Iran has lost a significant portion of its military infrastructure and much of its senior leadership. Still, the regime does not appear weak enough to collapse.

In response, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now lobbying in Washington to continue the attacks on Iran and target the remaining leadership.

At this stage of the war, most Gulf countries are moving toward that position, especially as Iranian attacks on non-military infrastructure and civilian areas are increasing. Qatar has also announced that all military personnel and non-diplomatic staff at the Iranian embassy in Doha must leave within 24 hours.

The only country pushing for restraint and actively lobbying against further escalation is Turkey. It fears that the fall of the Iranian regime could create security consequences, particularly regarding the Kurdish question, with concerns that new forms of Kurdish autonomy could emerge in western Iran along its border.