Is Iran’s Fall the Ultimate End Goal of the United States?
In the aftermath of the global coronavirus pandemic, the People’s Republic of China has embarked on a new phase of its “quiet growth” strategy, aimed at crossing traditional trade boundaries and capturing the world’s financial nodes. Beijing is no longer just acting as a “world factory,” but is trying to dominate large-scale investments through “banking diplomacy” and the establishment of central bank branches in sensitive regions such as the Gulf and Africa, especially in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. This move is a clear indication of China’s desire to reduce its dependence on Western financial systems and create a new economic bloc in which the yuan serves as a global reserve currency. Meanwhile, China has resorted to buying unprecedented amounts of gold and has strengthened its position in the BRICS alliance with countries such as Russia, Iran, and India, as a shield against U.S. sanctions and to create a new geopolitical polarization against the G7.
European market turmoil and technological competition with Washington: China’s trade with Europe is expected to reach a record €642 billion. Despite Beijing’s ongoing efforts to devalue the yuan against the euro in order to encourage more exports and capture European markets, financial dynamics have moved in a complicated direction. The euro has maintained its value by more than 40% between 2020 and 2025, creating pressure on China’s trade advantage. The United States, on the other hand, has viewed these rapid Chinese advances as an existential threat to its position, thereby shifting the conflict from trade to technological and artificial intelligence competition. Washington’s pressure to force the sale of TikTok to U.S. investors, including Oracle and Microsoft, is not just an economic issue, but part of a broader effort to protect data and prevent China’s digital hegemony, which could affect U.S. national security in the future.
Energy geopolitics and the Venezuela–Iran equation: One of the most important pillars of China’s national security is its energy supply, which has led to a deep strategic relationship with Venezuela, a country that has the world’s largest oil reserves (303 billion barrels). By purchasing 68% of Venezuela’s oil, China not only protects its energy security but also thwarts U.S. political interference in the country. Although the U.S. arrest of Nicolas Maduro and the pressure on Venezuela’s regime continue, China’s reliance on Venezuela’s vast oil supplies has kept Beijing a major player in Latin America. This might not remain the case if the U.S. continues to expand its influence over Venezuela and its oil trade. The threat deepens when the United States attempts to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, such as Khark Island, as part of its conflict with Iran. Such a move would disrupt China’s 16.37 million barrels per day of oil supply and create major disruptions for South Korean and Japanese industries, potentially leading to a global energy crisis that could upset the political balance, which by then only the U.S. is able to solve.
Iraq’s position and the Strait of Hormuz scenarios: Amid these conflicts, Iraq, as an oil-rich state, faces significant risks, especially due to its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz to export most of its oil. In the event of a prolonged military conflict in the region, Iraq would have to resort to alternative options, none of which are without obstacles: repairing the old and damaged pipelines to the port of Banyas through Syria, or increasing exports through the Kurdistan Region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The decisive point in the conflict is control over the three strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz (Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa). If the United States were to seize these islands, which have been under Iranian control since 1971, it would effectively dominate the Strait and place Tehran under complete military and economic isolation—a potential turning point in ending the region’s long-standing conflicts. This in turn would also weaken Iran’s grip over Iraq’s politics through the Shia proxy militias, which the U.S. has been targeting for the last 10 days.
With both Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil under the de facto control of the United States, it would mean a catastrophic impact on China, which is currently the most energy-hungry state in the world. It would only be able to breathe and access oil when the U.S. allows it. The Venezuela and Iran war was not only about the war on drugs, the Middle East and Israel; it also addresses a problem that previous U.S. administrations were unable to tackle, which is limiting and containing China’s power and growth.
