Iran Waning Influence and Shadow Rivalries: Britain & Turkey vs. the U.S. in Iraq
Following the events of October 16, 2017, some observers pointed the finger of blame at British Petroleum (BP). The opening moves of this equation triggered significant protest within the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), splintering the party into several internal fronts. Some wings professed ignorance of any coordination with the Iraqi army and Hashd al-Shaabi to seize Kirkuk and remove it from the Kurdistan Regional Government's control. The pro-British wing of the PUK, however, acknowledged that meetings had already taken place with British and American officials aimed at prying Kirkuk out of the Region's hands.
The United Kingdom was firmly opposed to any partition of Iraqi territory, despite the irony that modern Iraq was itself a British creation in the wake of the Sykes-Picot agreement. The Abadi government and Shia political forces, for their part, were eager to see BP return to the Kirkuk fields. For oil majors like BP, an agreement with a sovereign state such as Baghdad was far more legally secure than one with a region whose authority to sell oil on international markets remained contested. Washington, meanwhile, calculated that an independent Kurdistan would collapse the Iraqi state entirely, opening a vast political vacuum that Iran could exploit to consolidate hegemony over the Shia-majority oil belt and push its influence toward the borders of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
In May 2025, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the federal government and BP covering the rehabilitation and development of four key oil fields: Bai Hassan (including Baba Dome and Avana), Jambur, and Khabbaz. Previously operated by the North Oil Company, these fields were entrusted to BP to ramp up output. The projected investment is estimated at $25 billion, with the goal of tripling production capacity to 420,000 barrels per day. However, in the wake of the US-Israeli war against Iran, BP withdrew its personnel from the fields.
Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the opening of talks in Pakistan, the Iraqi parliament moved to elect a new president, but the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) boycotted the vote on Nizar Amedi. Rumors circulating from within the KDP alleged that the PUK had struck a deal with the Turkmen Front and Mohammed al-Halbousi to hand the Kirkuk governorship over to a Turkmen candidate. Here, the leadership of the two brothers at the helm of the PUK, both seen as close to London, has played a role in negotiations with the Trump administration, steering the Kurds away from active participation in any US-led ground operation against Iran.
Viewed from a wider angle, Turkey-UK relations have deepened since Brexit. London now regards Ankara as a strategic economic gateway, with annual bilateral trade estimated between $15 billion and $20 billion, a trajectory reinforced by the fourth round of free trade negotiations held in February.
Against this backdrop, it is reasonable to conclude that the UK supports the PUK's opening toward Turkey, particularly on the Kirkuk governorship and coordination around the formation of the new Iraqi cabinet. A further dimension worth flagging is Donald Trump's pointed criticism of Keir Starmer's government for failing to back the war against Iran. In an interview with Sky News, Trump said relations with Britain were unsatisfactory and signaled that the May free trade agreement could be revisited.
The fallout from these overlapping frictions will weigh heavily on the formation of the next Kurdistan Regional Government cabinet. The United States now finds itself entering a new phase of contest with Britain and Turkey inside Iraq, particularly after the weakening of Iranian hegemony and the deterioration of relations between Turkey and Israel, a core US strategic ally, as the geopolitical map of the Middle East is redrawn.
Resources:
Voice of America – Dengê Amerîka.
Rudaw. “PUK Opens Investigation into ‘October 16 Catastrophe’ in Kirkuk.” October 24, 2017.
Rudaw. “Energy Giant BP Withdraws from Four Kirkuk Oil, Gas Fields.” March 16, 2026.
UK Government. “Update Following Round 4 of Negotiations on an Enhanced Free Trade Agreement with Turkey.” March 18, 2026.
The Telegraph. “The British-Raised Brothers Who Stopped Kurds Being Dragged into Trump’s War.” April 3, 2026.
The Guardian. “Trump Threatens US-UK Trade Deal Over Starmer’s Stance on Iran.” April 15, 2026.
