From the Strait of Hormuz to Artemis II: How Global Geopolitics Is Being Rewritten

The collapse of Pakistan's mediation efforts, coupled with the closure of the last remaining diplomatic channels between Tehran and Washington, could push Iran into a dangerous phase of eroding sovereignty. Both Pakistan and Turkey view the strengthening of Kurdish and Baluch movements as a direct threat to their national security, particularly in the event of an Iranian civil war that weakens the pillars of the state and exhausts the Revolutionary Guards under the mounting costs of war.

Against this backdrop, the United States and Israel have an interest in prolonging the conflict. A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz would sharply raise the production costs of Chinese goods, sending shockwaves not only through China's domestic economy but through global markets as well. China would no longer be able to position itself as the world's low-cost manufacturer, particularly for European consumers, after years of competing aggressively against American goods in global markets.

Washington initially tried to blunt the wave of cheap Chinese exports by raising tariffs, but the policy delivered limited results. Beijing offset the pressure through massive investments in infrastructure, including ports and railways, and by entrenching its dominance in strategic sectors such as telecommunications and automotive manufacturing.

This economic pressure on Beijing is unfolding in parallel with an equally consequential contest beyond Earth.

The success of the Artemis II mission, together with the future deployment of a network of robotic stations at the Moon's South Pole, marks a major strategic leap for the United States in its technological and geopolitical contest with China. The achievement is more than a scientific milestone; it is a demonstration of decisive strength in what is increasingly called the "New Space Race." Washington has consolidated its lead in heavy-lift transport systems and lunar communications technology well ahead of Beijing's timeline for a crewed landing.

The move also reinforces the international legitimacy of the Artemis Accords and has allowed Washington to rally a broad global coalition around its framework, creating a significant obstacle to any unilateral Chinese claim over the Moon's resource-rich regions. As a result, 2026 may prove to be a turning point, the year in which the United States reaffirmed that it still commands the most dominant and fastest-moving industrial and scientific infrastructure in the world.