Is Mojtaba Khamenei the Khorasani?

News travels quickly, and by now many of us have already heard that following the killing of Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mojtaba, his son, has been chosen by the council to become the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

We initially intended to write a quick biography of Mojtaba, but those interested in this topic have likely already searched his name and read about him. Mojtaba is not a very public figure. However, behind the scenes he has long been considered one of the ultimate power brokers in Iran and across the Middle East, deeply involved in the affairs of Shia expansion and influence.

What makes Mojtaba particularly interesting is his deep connection to theology, especially Twelver Shia eschatology, and how these beliefs have shaped his role in Iranian politics and the broader strategy of the Islamic Republic throughout the Middle East.

Twelver Shiism is the largest branch of Shia Islam. It is dominant in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, present in smaller numbers in parts of the Gulf, and has grown in Yemen over the last decades. This branch of Shia Islam became the ideological foundation of the 1979 Iranian Revolution and remains the theological pillar upon which the Islamic Republic is built.

Twelver Shia belief holds that after the passing of the Prophet Muhammad, God appointed twelve divinely guided leaders, Imams, from the Prophet’s direct family. These Imams are considered spiritually pure, the legitimate leaders of the Muslim community, and the correct interpreters of Islam.

The first Imam was Ali ibn Abi Talib, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet. Twelver Shia believe that after the Prophet’s death, Ali was divinely chosen to lead the Muslim community. This belief created the historic division that ultimately led to the separation between Sunni and Shia Islam. Over the centuries, various interpretations and branches of Shia Islam developed, but Twelver Shiism remained the largest and most influential.

The Imams who followed Ali, in order, are: Hasan ibn Ali, Husayn ibn Ali, Ali Zayn al-Abidin, Muhammad al-Baqir, Ja’far al-Sadiq, Musa al-Kazim, Ali al-Reza, Muhammad al-Jawad, Ali al-Hadi, Hasan al-Askari, and the final Imam, the Hidden Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi.

According to Twelver Shia belief, this last Imam did not die but entered occultation and will return in the future to restore justice and establish true Islamic governance. He will defeat corruption and tyranny, which many within this belief system associate with illegitimate rule and oppression. His return will correct the world before the eventual Day of Judgment.

When we look at the eschatological narratives surrounding the return of the Hidden Imam, this is where Mojtaba Khamenei becomes a particularly interesting figure. Many observers believe he has been one of the architects of the Islamic Republic’s Shia expansion across the Middle East, partly shaped by this theological worldview.

Within Twelver eschatology, three key figures are expected to emerge before the Mahdi’s return.

The first is the Yamani, described as a righteous leader emerging from Yemen. His role is to call people toward the Mahdi, and his movement is considered the most legitimate and truthful before the Mahdi appears. Some believe this figure may emerge from the Houthi movement in Yemen, which represents the Shia minority in the country. The Houthis have been fighting Saudi and UAE-backed Sunni forces for more than a decade, and they have received support, funding, and weapons from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While the IRGC was commanded and expanded under Ali Khamenei, many insiders have long believed Mojtaba played a major role behind the scenes, and that parts of the IRGC’s loyalty align closely with him.

Externally, the mission in Yemen has often been described as support for a local uprising. Internally, some believe it has also been about shaping the conditions for the Yamani to emerge. Some supporters already claim that this figure may be present in Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the current leader of the Houthis. This belief is one reason why there appears to be strong protection and coordination around the Houthi leadership.

The second figure is the Sufyani, considered the enemy of the Mahdi. In the tradition, he is described as a tyrannical ruler who will rise in Syria and declare his rule from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. Interestingly, recent political developments have led some Twelver Shia commentators to draw parallels with Ahmad Sharaa in Syria. In December 2024, after taking power in Syria, Sharaa entered the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and declared victory over Bashar al-Assad, who had been a key ally of Iran and supported for years by the IRGC. Sharaa framed his victory as reclaiming Syria for Sunni rule. For some within the Shia world, this moment reinforced the belief that he could represent the Sufyani figure. Since then, tensions between Syria under Sharaa and neighboring Iraq have remained high, with speculation that clashes could eventually escalate.

The third figure is perhaps the most intriguing: the Khorasani.

According to the tradition, the Khorasani will emerge from the historical region of Khorasan. Mojtaba Khamenei was born in Mashhad, which lies at the heart of that region. Mashhad is also home to the shrine of the eighth Imam, Ali al-Reza, making it one of the most important spiritual centers of Twelver Shiism and a major pilgrimage site.

For nearly four decades of clerical rule in Iran, narratives surrounding the return of the Mahdi, and the roles of the Khorasani, Yamani, and Sufyani, have often appeared in ideological discussions tied to the Islamic Republic’s regional strategy.

Within these traditions, several characteristics are associated with the Khorasani. He is expected to come from the region of Khorasan, to have been involved in warfare involving Iran and Iraq, and to play a major role in Iraq itself. Mojtaba fought in the Iran-Iraq war when he was only seventeen. In Iraq today, the Shia paramilitary forces known as the Hashd al-Shaabi are closely aligned with Iran. Many analysts believe Mojtaba was the architect in shaping these networks, alongside Qassem Soleimani, the long-time commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force.

Soleimani himself was known to be deeply ideological. In several documented conversations with political figures and militia leaders, he reportedly expressed strong belief in the eschatological narratives and, according to some accounts, viewed Mojtaba as fulfilling the role of the Khorasani.

Tradition also holds that the Khorasani will be active in Syria before the rise of the Sufyani. Mojtaba has reportedly traveled to Syria multiple times over the years to help coordinate Iranian support structures that kept Bashar al-Assad in power during the Syrian war.

According to some interpretations of Twelver Shia belief, and according to certain circles within the Iranian establishment, the Khorasani is Mojtaba himself, the military figure destined to raise the black banners from the East.

Mojtaba, his late father, and many of their closest commanders and advisors deeply believe in the eventual return of the Mahdi. They view their role as preparing the conditions for that moment. Within this worldview, Mojtaba represents the Khorasani, the Houthi leadership represents the Yamani, and figures emerging in Syria may represent the Sufyani.

Whether these interpretations are correct is ultimately a matter for theologians and historians to debate. What is clear, however, is that Mojtaba and his followers take these beliefs seriously. If they shape the thinking of those now leading the Islamic Republic, they will inevitably influence the political and strategic direction of the Middle East in the years ahead.