Flash Update: Weakened but Standing: The Limits of the War Against Iran

According to different sources, the U.S. has held conversations with Iran through mediators and also directly. At the same time, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that “Iran’s regime will likely remain in place for now, weakened but more hard-line.”

U.S. President Trump has said that the war will see a breakthrough and could end soon. This comes as his invitation for European countries to join the fight and work toward lifting the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz has been rejected. This places significant pressure on Washington to conclude the war, especially as key Pacific allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have indicated they could suffer heavily if the blockade continues. Europe is already experiencing similar pressure through rising energy prices.

At the same time, Trump must also consider developments in the Pacific. There have been reports of China moving parts of its naval fleet closer to Taiwan. With the war against Iran ongoing, the U.S. has tied up a significant portion of its military capabilities, limiting its ability to respond quickly to potential hostilities from China or North Korea.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia appears to be pushing the U.S. for a final push in its attacks on Iran in order to weaken the regime further. Israel, at the same time, seems to be hoping that renewed demonstrations will erupt inside Iran, especially as Israeli strikes in recent days have focused more heavily on the Basij. The Basij militia has long been responsible for suppressing and violently cracking down on protesters inside Iran.

The outcome of the war with Iran will likely include many twists and turns, and it may not produce the outcome that the U.S. or Israel expects. One major limitation is the reluctance of other U.S. and Israeli allies to join the conflict. Many European governments fear the economic consequences and the political backlash from voters at home.

For now, attacks—especially drone strikes launched from Iran—continue against Gulf countries. The intensity has decreased, but the disruptions and security pressure remain.

At the same time, Iraq is facing its own internal escalation. PMF factions continue to attack Iraqi military positions, infrastructure, and civilian areas, including ongoing and heavy attacks on the Kurdistan Region. In response, the U.S. continues to strike PMF targets, particularly Kataib Hezbollah.

In the coming days, most likely before Eid al-Fitr, a clearer picture may begin to emerge of what the end goal of this war will actually look like.